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John DiStaso, the New Hampshire Union Leader's senior political writer, began writing "Granite Status" in 1982. His influential reports on behind-the-scenes politics in the first-primary state are must reading every Thursday for insiders from Concord to Washington, D.C. Watch for "Granite Status" updates on UnionLeader.com whenever New Hampshire political news breaks.
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April 25. 2012 11:54AM
John DiStaso's Granite Status: Van Ostern says he's the first Executive Council candidate ever to reach 1,000 donations
WEDNESDAY, MAY 2, UPDATE: COLIN'S MILESTONE. District 2 Democratic Executive Council candidate Colin Van Ostern has been working the grassroots hard since beginning his campaign last year.
Van Ostern tells us he is now the first Executive Council candidate on record, and probably in state history, to report receiving more than 1,000 individual donations, and there are still six months to go before the election.
Van Ostern says his campaign has raised over $100,000 with an average contribution of roughly $100 and more than three-quarters of the funds coming from New Hampshire voters. No donor to his campaign has yet given the maximum contribution, he says.
He said he is not sure precisely how many individual donors have given to him but said the number is near 1,000. He said he's sure a “handful” of donors probably gave more than once.
But Van Ostern said he checked and found that even the venerable Ray Burton has never, so far at least, reached 1,000 individual donations and had a high water mark of 962 donations in 2004.
“This overwhelming grassroots support is a clear signal that New Hampshire voters in every corner of the state are rallying behind our call for more focus on jobs and the economy, and less government interference in our personal lives,” Van Ostern says in a statement. “Other campaigns may have bigger bank accounts in this election, but I am proud of the widespread, grassroots support that is reflected in the historic number of voters investing in our campaign.”
Van Ostern opposes Republican efforts to de-fund Planned Parenthood and last week delivered a petition to Gov. John Lynch signed by nearly 2,500 voters calling for an end to that legislation, which was tabled in the state Senate.
(Earlier updates and the full April 26 Granite Status follow.)
WEDNESDAY, MAY 2, UPDATE: WEDNESDAY, MAY 2, UPDATE: LANDING THE GREGGS. Ovide Lamontagne will add to his list of big name endorsements later today when he announces he is being backed by Judd and Kathy Gregg.
It's the first time the former senator and governor has endorsed Lamontagne, who has run in the past for the U.S. House (1992), governor (1996) and U.S. Senate (2010). During those races, Gregg was in office and made no endorsements.
Gregg said he understands what it's like to serve in the “challenging role” of governor, calling Lamontagne “a trusted conservative and tested leader with the experience to get our economy moving again.”
He said Lamontagne “has distinguished himself as a leader in the public, private and nonprofit sectors, and it is this diverse leadership experience that has prepared him to serve with distinction as our next governor.”
Lamontagne said he was “honored” to earn Judd and Kathy Gregg's support.
Gregg became the second former governor to endorse in the gubernatorial primary. Lamontagne's Republican foe, Kevin Smith, picked up the backing of his former boss, former Gov. Craig Benson, last month.
The Greggs join a diverse group of conservatives, moderates, Tea Party, senior elected and newly elected officials who are backing Lamontagne.
Judd Gregg will join Lamontagne for a tour of the Sig Sauer manufacturing plant in Exeter on May 21.
(Earlier updates and the full April 26 Granite Status follow.)
THURSDAY, APRIL 26, UPDATE: THE HUCK'S RETURN. The New Hampshire Republican Party has landed Fox News talk show host and 2008 presidential candidate Mike Huckabee to headline its upcoming annual dinner.
The Granite Status has learned the former Arkansas governor will be announced as the headliner for the event, scheduled for May 30 at the Radisson Center of New Hampshire hotel armory.
Tickets and ticket packages range from $100 to $2,000.
It will be Huckabee's first return visit to New Hampshire since his third place finish in the 2008 first-in-the-nation presidential primary.
Huckabee's win in the 2008 Iowa caucus and third place finish in the New Hampshire first-in-the-nation primary that year launched him into serious contention for the GOP presidential nomination, which was eventually won by John McCain.
Since leaving the presidential race, Huckabee has formed a political action committee, HuckPAC, to promote conservative views and candidates. He has also become a media personality, hosting Fox News' top rated weekend talk show, “Huckabee,” and syndicated radio programs. He is also the author of nine books.
Recently, Huckabee has been mentioned along with many others as a potential running mate for presumptive GOP presidential nominee Mitt Romney.
He's also an accomplished guitarist.
“It will be great to have him back,” said former state Sen. Bob Clegg, a key Huckabee backer in 2008.
Clegg said that for Romney to choose Huckabee as a running mate “would definitely be a uniting factor” for Romney.
(An earlier update and the full April 26 Granite Status follow.)
THURSDAY, APRIL 26, UPDATE: FEC ADVISORY OPINION. The Federal Election Commission voted 5-1 Thursday morning to issue an advisory opinion that New Hampshire's controversial push poll law is preempted by federal law when it comes to candidates for federal offices.
While saying that ultimately, it is a question for the courts to decide, the commission gave its opinion that the state cannot force federal candidates to identify themselves to voters when they conduct push polling calls against their opponents, as required by the state law.
The calls would be subject only to the Federal Election Campaign Act, which requires no such disclaimers on polling calls, the commission said.
The opinion would presumably carry some weight in a court challenge of the law. The state Attorney General's Office is reviewing the opinion.
The advisory opinion was requested by Democratic pollster Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research, which intends to conduct polling for federal candidates and nonprofit special interest groups in New Hampshire this year.
The commission reached no conclusion on whether the state statute is preempted with respect to telephone surveys made on behalf of nonprofit organizations which "do not contain express advocacy," but said it does apply to "federal candidates' authorized campaign committees" and "other federal political committees."
The opinion may help U.S. Rep. Charlie Bass' defense of a lawsuit filed by the Attorney General charging him with violating the state push poll law.
The Attorney General has been aggressively enforcing the push poll law with respect to federal candidate for the past several years.
Today's action is an advisory opinion and does not have the direct force of law, but could be used to bolster arguments against the state statute in court challenges. In that sense, it could be a major blow to the state statute.
To read the advisory opinion click here.
See our full updated story on the FEC opinion elsewhere on UnionLeader.com.
(The full April 26 Granite Status follows.)
THURSDAY, APRIL 26: SO LONG, NEWT. With Newt Gingrich expected to leave the Republican presidential campaign next week, efforts are intensifying in New Hampshire and nationally to unify the party behind presumptive nominee Mitt Romney.
“Newt Gingrich will suspend his campaign next week,” Gingrich spokesman R.C. Hammond confirmed to the Granite Status on Wednesday.
Hammond said reports that the Gingrich announcement will come next Tuesday are “not accurate. ‘Next week' is as specific as he's gotten.”
Hammond said Romney called Gingrich on Wednesday morning.
“They had a very good conversation, building upon several conversations they've had throughout the campaign on how Newt is committed to helping Governor Romney become President,” said Hammond. “They are laying plans out right now on what is the best role for him to play to help him do that.
“Newt is also committed to helping win a majority for Republicans in the United States Senate and helping Speaker (John) Boehner maintain a House majority as a governing coalition is as important to the next President as it is to replace Barack Obama in the White House,” Hammond said.
Gingrich finished fifth in the first-in-the-nation New Hampshire primary on Jan. 10, a handful of votes behind fourth-place finisher Rick Santorum.
Hammond said Gingrich “intends to commit his talents and resources to making sure that Republicans have every advantage in the fall election.”
He said Gingrich, Romney and Santorum “began talking several months ago. They made a pact that whatever happens in the race they were committed to supporting each other as the nominee. There have been open lines of communication at the candidate level for some time. They were frank and cordial exchanges.”
Hammond said Gingrich “will do what he can to make sure conservatives are mobilized to vote for Mitt Romney this fall. They are an important coalition for the Republican Party. With them, we win.”
MITT THE UNITER? The question now is whether Romney can truly unite Republicans - not just the former candidates and their top followers - behind him. That's not only a nationwide question, it's a New Hampshire question as well.
The WMUR Granite Poll conducted by the UNH Survey Center and released on Monday showed Obama leading Romney 51 to 42 percent in the Granite State and Romney still a bit scarred from a tough primary fight.
Obama received a 91 percent favorable rating among self-identified Democrats in the poll, but Romney was viewed favorably by only 66 percent of self-identified Republicans, with 23 percent of Republicans viewing him unfavorably.
While Obama beat Romney 40 to 35 percent among New Hampshire independents in a head-to-head match-up, neither candidate is viewed favorably by that all-important group.
Obama's favorable/unfavorable rating among independents was 34/54 percent, while Romney's was 30/49 percent.
Two top state Tea Party leaders say that eventually, the base will rally behind Romney.
“Tea Party voters and conservative voters in general are still not convinced that Mitt Romney is going to govern from the right,” said former Gingrich New Hampshire campaign manager and Tea Party activist Andrew Hemingway.
“They have questions about him, but coming into the general election, they'll rally around Mitt for the same reason they rallied around Santorum and Newt. They were the ‘not-Romney' candidates and now Romney is the ‘not-Obama' candidate.”
Hemingway said conservative voters “may not necessarily get excited about Mitt Romney because there is not a lot to get excited about, but they'll get excited about how bad Obama is and about having a chance to remove him from office.”
Jack Kimball, a former GOP candidate for governor and current chairman of the Granite State Patriots Liberty PAC, said he will personally “enthusiastically get behind Mitt Romney because the alternative is unacceptable.
“There are a lot of Tea Party and liberty-oriented folks who are upset and may not jump on board because they feel Mitt is not conservative enough,” Kimball, who supported Herman Cain and then Gingrich, said. “But for me, I'll work as hard as I can to bring these folks to the fore. I'm going to take Mitt Romney at his word.”
Romney senior adviser Jim Merrill said there are signs of unity.
He said supporters of the other primary candidates have come on board and some appeared at the Tuesday night speech by Romney in Manchester, which Merrill said was a “pivot point” in the campaign.
Merrill said that while the Democrats have had no primary and have begun organizing for Obama, “What they fail to realize is that for the last year and a half Mitt Romney has organized in New Hampshire town-by-town and county-by-county. That team is still in place. Those people we organized and identified are ready to go. In the near term, there will be a campaign staff and office in New Hampshire.”
The Republican National Committee is also expected to make an announcement of key “victory” operations staffing in the next several days.
“Polls are a snapshot in time,” said Merrill. “We aren't governed by the poll. We had a broad coalition in January and I expect we'll be able to build a similar coalition here for November because the survey also shows that far and away the biggest concern is jobs and the economy.
“And you've got a very stark contrast” between Romney and Obama, “and we're looking forward to making that contrast day after day.”
THE POLITICAL PENDULUM. Is the political pendulum swinging back in a “left-ward” direction again?
Polls so far this week conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center for WMUR indicated that, as poll director Andrew Smith says, “legislative overreach” is having a negative impact on the GOP, just as it did on the Democrats two years ago.
It's still very early but besides the poll showing Obama with a 9 percentage point lead over Romney, another showed Democratic candidates for governor either tied with or slightly ahead of their Republican counterparts, albeit with a large number of voters undecided.
It's no surprise that about 80 percent of those surveyed said they did not know enough about the newcomers to statewide elective politics - Maggie Hassan, Jackie Cilley and Kevin Smith - to say whether they had a favorable or unfavorable impression of them.
But it was a bit of a surprise that only about half of all those surveyed and half of self-identified Republicans said they did not know enough about Ovide Lamontagne, despite his two past runs for statewide office, to say whether they have an impression of him.
But UNH poll director Andrew Smith says it should be no surprise.
“He's well-known within the party leadership but not so much among the rank-and-file,” said Smith. “He did well in a small-turnout election (2010 U.S. Senate primary), but that was a couple of years ago. These people are out of the sight of the voters between elections.
“Every candidate ought to run as if nobody knows who they are and they're behind,” said Smith. “This gives you an indication of where you stand with the voters.”
Smith said it should be “absolutely expected that there would be a shift from what we saw in 2010,” when Republicans were swept to huge majorities in the House, Senate and Executive Council and in the U.S. Senate race and two U.S. House races.
“In every election, one side is more energized than the other side, and the energized side gets their people to the polls while the dispirited side does not. The energized side's candidates win up and down the ticket and then that party in power always seems to engage in legislative over-reach.
“Then, people get angry and they get out and vote for the other guys in the next election. Democrats did the same in 2006 and 2008 as Republicans did in 2010,” said Smith. “I think we'll get back to more of an equilibrium this year.”
Although the pendulum may be swinging, “Republicans still have an overall advantage going into this election because of the state of the economy,” said Smith. “The large-scale factors are really what's important and the economy is always the biggest factor,” he said. “When the economy is bad, even if you're not responsible for it, you're going to lose.”
LEDBETTER IN NH. The Obama campaign is bringing equal pay advocate Lilly Ledbetter to New Hampshire next week.
Ledbetter, the namesake of the Fair Pay Act, appeared on a conference call with Granite State Democrats last week criticizing Romney and the NHGOP, but next week she will appear in person at house parties in Hanover, Nashua and Concord.
MANNEY FOR OVIDE. Lamontagne this week picked up the endorsement of Pam Manney, the immediate past vice chair of the New Hampshire GOP.
She called him “a proven leader whose business acumen and a long-time advocacy for low taxes and smaller government will serve New Hampshire well.”
SMITH'S TOWN HALLS. Kevin Smith has announced he will answer voters' questions at 14 town halls over all 10 counties during the next two months.
The first three are on May 7 at Seacoast Charter School in Kingston; May 15 at the American Legion in Hudson; and May 21 at the Dover Public Library, all at 6 p.m.
The full schedule is listed on KevinSmithForGovernor.com.
Smith told us, “This is an opportunity to engage with the voters, not just Republicans but also independents and maybe some Democrats, to hear what's on their minds and it's an opportunity for me to talk about my plan, ‘New Hampshire's Future is Now.'”
Smith said this week's poll “showed if nothing else, that this race is wide open and no one has locked down anything.”
MORE UNIONS FOR MAGGIE. With the addition of two more union endorsements in the past week, Hassan's campaign for governor has now picked up the backing of the International Union of Painters and Allied Trades Council No. 35, Carpenters Local 118, Iron Workers Local 7 and United Food and Commercial Workers Locals 1445 and 791.
HODES BACK AT THE FIRM. The Shaheen and Gordon law firm announced Wednesday that it has been rejoined by former U.S. Rep. Paul Hodes, who was previously with the firm from 1996 to 2004.
John DiStaso is senior political reporter of the New Hampshire Union Leader and New Hampshire Sunday News. Follow him on Twitter @jdistaso.
Van Ostern tells us he is now the first Executive Council candidate on record, and probably in state history, to report receiving more than 1,000 individual donations, and there are still six months to go before the election.
Van Ostern says his campaign has raised over $100,000 with an average contribution of roughly $100 and more than three-quarters of the funds coming from New Hampshire voters. No donor to his campaign has yet given the maximum contribution, he says.
He said he is not sure precisely how many individual donors have given to him but said the number is near 1,000. He said he's sure a “handful” of donors probably gave more than once.
But Van Ostern said he checked and found that even the venerable Ray Burton has never, so far at least, reached 1,000 individual donations and had a high water mark of 962 donations in 2004.
“This overwhelming grassroots support is a clear signal that New Hampshire voters in every corner of the state are rallying behind our call for more focus on jobs and the economy, and less government interference in our personal lives,” Van Ostern says in a statement. “Other campaigns may have bigger bank accounts in this election, but I am proud of the widespread, grassroots support that is reflected in the historic number of voters investing in our campaign.”
Van Ostern opposes Republican efforts to de-fund Planned Parenthood and last week delivered a petition to Gov. John Lynch signed by nearly 2,500 voters calling for an end to that legislation, which was tabled in the state Senate.
(Earlier updates and the full April 26 Granite Status follow.)
WEDNESDAY, MAY 2, UPDATE: WEDNESDAY, MAY 2, UPDATE: LANDING THE GREGGS. Ovide Lamontagne will add to his list of big name endorsements later today when he announces he is being backed by Judd and Kathy Gregg.
It's the first time the former senator and governor has endorsed Lamontagne, who has run in the past for the U.S. House (1992), governor (1996) and U.S. Senate (2010). During those races, Gregg was in office and made no endorsements.
Gregg said he understands what it's like to serve in the “challenging role” of governor, calling Lamontagne “a trusted conservative and tested leader with the experience to get our economy moving again.”
He said Lamontagne “has distinguished himself as a leader in the public, private and nonprofit sectors, and it is this diverse leadership experience that has prepared him to serve with distinction as our next governor.”
Lamontagne said he was “honored” to earn Judd and Kathy Gregg's support.
Gregg became the second former governor to endorse in the gubernatorial primary. Lamontagne's Republican foe, Kevin Smith, picked up the backing of his former boss, former Gov. Craig Benson, last month.
The Greggs join a diverse group of conservatives, moderates, Tea Party, senior elected and newly elected officials who are backing Lamontagne.
Judd Gregg will join Lamontagne for a tour of the Sig Sauer manufacturing plant in Exeter on May 21.
(Earlier updates and the full April 26 Granite Status follow.)
THURSDAY, APRIL 26, UPDATE: THE HUCK'S RETURN. The New Hampshire Republican Party has landed Fox News talk show host and 2008 presidential candidate Mike Huckabee to headline its upcoming annual dinner.
The Granite Status has learned the former Arkansas governor will be announced as the headliner for the event, scheduled for May 30 at the Radisson Center of New Hampshire hotel armory.
Tickets and ticket packages range from $100 to $2,000.
It will be Huckabee's first return visit to New Hampshire since his third place finish in the 2008 first-in-the-nation presidential primary.
Huckabee's win in the 2008 Iowa caucus and third place finish in the New Hampshire first-in-the-nation primary that year launched him into serious contention for the GOP presidential nomination, which was eventually won by John McCain.
Since leaving the presidential race, Huckabee has formed a political action committee, HuckPAC, to promote conservative views and candidates. He has also become a media personality, hosting Fox News' top rated weekend talk show, “Huckabee,” and syndicated radio programs. He is also the author of nine books.
Recently, Huckabee has been mentioned along with many others as a potential running mate for presumptive GOP presidential nominee Mitt Romney.
He's also an accomplished guitarist.
“It will be great to have him back,” said former state Sen. Bob Clegg, a key Huckabee backer in 2008.
Clegg said that for Romney to choose Huckabee as a running mate “would definitely be a uniting factor” for Romney.
(An earlier update and the full April 26 Granite Status follow.)
THURSDAY, APRIL 26, UPDATE: FEC ADVISORY OPINION. The Federal Election Commission voted 5-1 Thursday morning to issue an advisory opinion that New Hampshire's controversial push poll law is preempted by federal law when it comes to candidates for federal offices.
While saying that ultimately, it is a question for the courts to decide, the commission gave its opinion that the state cannot force federal candidates to identify themselves to voters when they conduct push polling calls against their opponents, as required by the state law.
The calls would be subject only to the Federal Election Campaign Act, which requires no such disclaimers on polling calls, the commission said.
The opinion would presumably carry some weight in a court challenge of the law. The state Attorney General's Office is reviewing the opinion.
The advisory opinion was requested by Democratic pollster Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research, which intends to conduct polling for federal candidates and nonprofit special interest groups in New Hampshire this year.
The commission reached no conclusion on whether the state statute is preempted with respect to telephone surveys made on behalf of nonprofit organizations which "do not contain express advocacy," but said it does apply to "federal candidates' authorized campaign committees" and "other federal political committees."
The opinion may help U.S. Rep. Charlie Bass' defense of a lawsuit filed by the Attorney General charging him with violating the state push poll law.
The Attorney General has been aggressively enforcing the push poll law with respect to federal candidate for the past several years.
Today's action is an advisory opinion and does not have the direct force of law, but could be used to bolster arguments against the state statute in court challenges. In that sense, it could be a major blow to the state statute.
To read the advisory opinion click here.
See our full updated story on the FEC opinion elsewhere on UnionLeader.com.
(The full April 26 Granite Status follows.)
THURSDAY, APRIL 26: SO LONG, NEWT. With Newt Gingrich expected to leave the Republican presidential campaign next week, efforts are intensifying in New Hampshire and nationally to unify the party behind presumptive nominee Mitt Romney.
“Newt Gingrich will suspend his campaign next week,” Gingrich spokesman R.C. Hammond confirmed to the Granite Status on Wednesday.
Hammond said reports that the Gingrich announcement will come next Tuesday are “not accurate. ‘Next week' is as specific as he's gotten.”
Hammond said Romney called Gingrich on Wednesday morning.
“They had a very good conversation, building upon several conversations they've had throughout the campaign on how Newt is committed to helping Governor Romney become President,” said Hammond. “They are laying plans out right now on what is the best role for him to play to help him do that.
“Newt is also committed to helping win a majority for Republicans in the United States Senate and helping Speaker (John) Boehner maintain a House majority as a governing coalition is as important to the next President as it is to replace Barack Obama in the White House,” Hammond said.
Gingrich finished fifth in the first-in-the-nation New Hampshire primary on Jan. 10, a handful of votes behind fourth-place finisher Rick Santorum.
Hammond said Gingrich “intends to commit his talents and resources to making sure that Republicans have every advantage in the fall election.”
He said Gingrich, Romney and Santorum “began talking several months ago. They made a pact that whatever happens in the race they were committed to supporting each other as the nominee. There have been open lines of communication at the candidate level for some time. They were frank and cordial exchanges.”
Hammond said Gingrich “will do what he can to make sure conservatives are mobilized to vote for Mitt Romney this fall. They are an important coalition for the Republican Party. With them, we win.”
MITT THE UNITER? The question now is whether Romney can truly unite Republicans - not just the former candidates and their top followers - behind him. That's not only a nationwide question, it's a New Hampshire question as well.
The WMUR Granite Poll conducted by the UNH Survey Center and released on Monday showed Obama leading Romney 51 to 42 percent in the Granite State and Romney still a bit scarred from a tough primary fight.
Obama received a 91 percent favorable rating among self-identified Democrats in the poll, but Romney was viewed favorably by only 66 percent of self-identified Republicans, with 23 percent of Republicans viewing him unfavorably.
While Obama beat Romney 40 to 35 percent among New Hampshire independents in a head-to-head match-up, neither candidate is viewed favorably by that all-important group.
Obama's favorable/unfavorable rating among independents was 34/54 percent, while Romney's was 30/49 percent.
Two top state Tea Party leaders say that eventually, the base will rally behind Romney.
“Tea Party voters and conservative voters in general are still not convinced that Mitt Romney is going to govern from the right,” said former Gingrich New Hampshire campaign manager and Tea Party activist Andrew Hemingway.
“They have questions about him, but coming into the general election, they'll rally around Mitt for the same reason they rallied around Santorum and Newt. They were the ‘not-Romney' candidates and now Romney is the ‘not-Obama' candidate.”
Hemingway said conservative voters “may not necessarily get excited about Mitt Romney because there is not a lot to get excited about, but they'll get excited about how bad Obama is and about having a chance to remove him from office.”
Jack Kimball, a former GOP candidate for governor and current chairman of the Granite State Patriots Liberty PAC, said he will personally “enthusiastically get behind Mitt Romney because the alternative is unacceptable.
“There are a lot of Tea Party and liberty-oriented folks who are upset and may not jump on board because they feel Mitt is not conservative enough,” Kimball, who supported Herman Cain and then Gingrich, said. “But for me, I'll work as hard as I can to bring these folks to the fore. I'm going to take Mitt Romney at his word.”
Romney senior adviser Jim Merrill said there are signs of unity.
He said supporters of the other primary candidates have come on board and some appeared at the Tuesday night speech by Romney in Manchester, which Merrill said was a “pivot point” in the campaign.
Merrill said that while the Democrats have had no primary and have begun organizing for Obama, “What they fail to realize is that for the last year and a half Mitt Romney has organized in New Hampshire town-by-town and county-by-county. That team is still in place. Those people we organized and identified are ready to go. In the near term, there will be a campaign staff and office in New Hampshire.”
The Republican National Committee is also expected to make an announcement of key “victory” operations staffing in the next several days.
“Polls are a snapshot in time,” said Merrill. “We aren't governed by the poll. We had a broad coalition in January and I expect we'll be able to build a similar coalition here for November because the survey also shows that far and away the biggest concern is jobs and the economy.
“And you've got a very stark contrast” between Romney and Obama, “and we're looking forward to making that contrast day after day.”
THE POLITICAL PENDULUM. Is the political pendulum swinging back in a “left-ward” direction again?
Polls so far this week conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center for WMUR indicated that, as poll director Andrew Smith says, “legislative overreach” is having a negative impact on the GOP, just as it did on the Democrats two years ago.
It's still very early but besides the poll showing Obama with a 9 percentage point lead over Romney, another showed Democratic candidates for governor either tied with or slightly ahead of their Republican counterparts, albeit with a large number of voters undecided.
It's no surprise that about 80 percent of those surveyed said they did not know enough about the newcomers to statewide elective politics - Maggie Hassan, Jackie Cilley and Kevin Smith - to say whether they had a favorable or unfavorable impression of them.
But it was a bit of a surprise that only about half of all those surveyed and half of self-identified Republicans said they did not know enough about Ovide Lamontagne, despite his two past runs for statewide office, to say whether they have an impression of him.
But UNH poll director Andrew Smith says it should be no surprise.
“He's well-known within the party leadership but not so much among the rank-and-file,” said Smith. “He did well in a small-turnout election (2010 U.S. Senate primary), but that was a couple of years ago. These people are out of the sight of the voters between elections.
“Every candidate ought to run as if nobody knows who they are and they're behind,” said Smith. “This gives you an indication of where you stand with the voters.”
Smith said it should be “absolutely expected that there would be a shift from what we saw in 2010,” when Republicans were swept to huge majorities in the House, Senate and Executive Council and in the U.S. Senate race and two U.S. House races.
“In every election, one side is more energized than the other side, and the energized side gets their people to the polls while the dispirited side does not. The energized side's candidates win up and down the ticket and then that party in power always seems to engage in legislative over-reach.
“Then, people get angry and they get out and vote for the other guys in the next election. Democrats did the same in 2006 and 2008 as Republicans did in 2010,” said Smith. “I think we'll get back to more of an equilibrium this year.”
Although the pendulum may be swinging, “Republicans still have an overall advantage going into this election because of the state of the economy,” said Smith. “The large-scale factors are really what's important and the economy is always the biggest factor,” he said. “When the economy is bad, even if you're not responsible for it, you're going to lose.”
LEDBETTER IN NH. The Obama campaign is bringing equal pay advocate Lilly Ledbetter to New Hampshire next week.
Ledbetter, the namesake of the Fair Pay Act, appeared on a conference call with Granite State Democrats last week criticizing Romney and the NHGOP, but next week she will appear in person at house parties in Hanover, Nashua and Concord.
MANNEY FOR OVIDE. Lamontagne this week picked up the endorsement of Pam Manney, the immediate past vice chair of the New Hampshire GOP.
She called him “a proven leader whose business acumen and a long-time advocacy for low taxes and smaller government will serve New Hampshire well.”
SMITH'S TOWN HALLS. Kevin Smith has announced he will answer voters' questions at 14 town halls over all 10 counties during the next two months.
The first three are on May 7 at Seacoast Charter School in Kingston; May 15 at the American Legion in Hudson; and May 21 at the Dover Public Library, all at 6 p.m.
The full schedule is listed on KevinSmithForGovernor.com.
Smith told us, “This is an opportunity to engage with the voters, not just Republicans but also independents and maybe some Democrats, to hear what's on their minds and it's an opportunity for me to talk about my plan, ‘New Hampshire's Future is Now.'”
Smith said this week's poll “showed if nothing else, that this race is wide open and no one has locked down anything.”
MORE UNIONS FOR MAGGIE. With the addition of two more union endorsements in the past week, Hassan's campaign for governor has now picked up the backing of the International Union of Painters and Allied Trades Council No. 35, Carpenters Local 118, Iron Workers Local 7 and United Food and Commercial Workers Locals 1445 and 791.
HODES BACK AT THE FIRM. The Shaheen and Gordon law firm announced Wednesday that it has been rejoined by former U.S. Rep. Paul Hodes, who was previously with the firm from 1996 to 2004.
John DiStaso is senior political reporter of the New Hampshire Union Leader and New Hampshire Sunday News. Follow him on Twitter @jdistaso.
